The end of round 2!
Washington has 9 representatives: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is June 6, primary is Aug 19
West Virginia has 3 representatives: 2 Democrats and 1 Republican
Filing deadline was Jan 26, primary is May 13
Wisconsin has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans
Filing deadline is July 7, primary is Sept. 9
Wyoming has 1 representative: A Republican
Filing deadline is May 30, primary Aug 19
District: WA-01
Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound
Representative Jay Inslee (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Larry Ishmael, who lost in 2006 ($22K raised, -8K net COH). Inslee has $850K COH
Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)
Assessment safe
District: WA-02
Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound.
Representative Rick Larsen (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 47-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Doug Roulstone raised $700K to Larsen’s $1.5 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Probably safe; certainly safe if no one runs.
District: WA-03
Location Southeastern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific
Representative Brian Baird (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 50-48
Notes on opponents In 2006, Michael Messmore raised $150K to Baird’s $735K. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment Probably safe, especially if no one runs
District: WA-04
Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima
Representative Doc Hastings (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 63-35
Notes on opponents In 2004, Sandy Matheson raised $400K to Hastings $560K. In 2006, Richard Wright raised $293K to Hastings $622K.
Current opponents George Fearing ($63K raised, $20K net COH); Hastings has $250K net COH.
Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%), 61st most Republican
Assessment Potentially vulnerable. Hastings is part of the Abramoff scandal.
District: WA-05
Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla
Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers
First elected 2004
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Notes on opponents In 2004, Don Barbieri raised $1.6 million to Rodgers $1.5; in 2006, Peter Goldmark raised $1.2 million to Rodgers $1.9.
Current opponents Mark Mays (no funding info), Rodgers has $280K net COH
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WA-06
Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada.
Representative Norm Dicks (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: WA-07
Location Seattle
Representative Jim McDermott (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin 79-16
2004 margin 81-19
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial), 23rd most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: WA-08
Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle
Representative Dave Reichert (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Darcy Burner and Reichert each raised about $3 million. In 2004, Dave Ross and Reichert each raised about $1.5 million
Current opponents Darcy Burner is running again. She has raised $870K and has $600K COH (as of 12/31). Reichert has about $500K COH
Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 8th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: WA-09
Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound
Representative Adam Smith (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 63-34
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)
Assessment Safe
District: WV-01
Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD
Representative Alan Mollohan (D)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents In 2006, Chris Wakim raised $700K to Mollohan’s $1.7 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Safe, especially if no one runs
District: WV-02
Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD
Representative Shelley Moore Capito (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Callaghan raised $600K to Capito’s $2.3 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents
Thornton Cooper (no funding info)
Richard Robb – net COH about $1 K
Anne Barth has raised $330K since starting her campaign in late January. Capito has $600K COH
Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Barth is raising money at a great clip, and has Byrd’s endorsement. Superribbie ranks it the 65th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: WV-03
Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA
Representative Nick Rahall (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Marty Gearhart (no funding info). Rahall has over $1.2 million COH
Demographics 14th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment safe
District: WI-01
Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan.
Representative Paul Ryan (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Marge Krupp has raised about $50K and has about $4K net COH, Ryan has about $1.6 million COH
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-02
Location Central southern WI, including Madison
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Notes on opponents Dave Magnum ran both times and raised $650K in 2004 and $1 million in 2006. Baldwin raised about $1.5 million each time
Current opponents Dave Redick (no funding info). Baldwin has $360K COH.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: WI-03
Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire
Representative Ron Kind (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2004, Dale Schultz raised $500K to Kind’s $1.2 million; in 2006, Paul Nelson raised $250K to Kind’s $780K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Probably safe
District: WI-04
Location Milwaukee and some suburbs
Representative Gwen Moore (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 70-28
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents
Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%), 50th most Democratic
Assessment
District: WI-05
Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee
Representative Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
First elected 1978
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 67-32
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents Bryan Kennedy ran both times, raising about $300K each time, Sensenbrenner got $700K and $800K
Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 74th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-06
Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh
Representative Tom Petri (R)
First elected 1979
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Notes on opponents Little money
Current opponents Roger Kittleson has raised $7K and has $2K COH, Petri has $877K COH
Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: WI-07
Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior
Representative Dave Obey
First elected 1969
2006 margin 62-35
2004 margin 86-9-5 against a Green and another minor party
Bush margin 2004 49-50
Notes on opponents Nick Reid raised $211K to Obey’s $1.4 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment safe
District: WI-08
Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay
Representative Steve Kagen (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents This seat was open in 2006, and Kagen raised $3.2 million to beat John Gard, who raised $2.8 million
Current opponents John Gard, who lost in 2006, is running again. He’s raised $360K and has $285K COH; Kagen has raised $850K and has about $200K net COH
Demographics 74th most rural (44%), 68th most Whites (92.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 6th most vulnerable Democratic seat.
District: WY-AL
Location Wyoming
Representative Barbara Cubin (R) who is retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 1,012 votes of 185,000
2004 margin 55-42
Bush margin 2004 69-29
Notes on opponents In 2006, Gary Trauner raised $950K to Cubin’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Ted Ladd raised $400K to Cubin’s $900K
Current opponents Gary Trauner is running again, no funding info. Several Republicans are running too.
Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%), 13th most Republican
Assessment Cubin’s retirement makes this harder, but I think there’s still a shot. Superribbie ranks it the 39th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
Superribbie ranked this the 65th most vulnerable Republican seat. I think that’s a bit of a stretch but 8th is a typo. 40th? 30th?
In WA-02, there’s a challenger, and a slightly more serious challenger than Larsen has gotten the last few go-rounds: former Snohomish County sheriff Rick Bart. I don’t get the impression he’s gotten anywhere on the fundraising front, but he’s already represented much of the district as sheriff and presents a kind of Reichert-like profile (minus the whole Green River Killer thing). I’d still call it Safe D unless Bart starts raising a lot of money.
In WA-03, I don’t think there’s any Republican on tap yet (and whoever it will be will be a placeholder) but there’s a primary challenge from Cheryl Crist. She’s a peace activist from Olympia; she has no money and I don’t see her getting much traction outside the crunchier parts of Olympia. (The district’s population center is Vancouver.) But it’s worth mentioning, as Baird has lots of online detractors over his war-funding votes.
Darcy Burner posted her fundraising numbers for Q1: $516,740, with $921,615 CoH. (No word yet on Reichert, who’s used some fuzzy math on previous reports.) I’ll repost this info next time there’s a fundraising thread.